RBI unsure whether to cut rates or not in its next monetary policy.
As per the RBI Act, the central bank should have four deputy governors - two from within the ranks and one commercial banker and the fourth one an economist to head the monetary policy department.
Rating agency Icra on Wednesday said while there is some evidence of the economic recovery becoming broad-based in the third quarter of fiscal 2022, it is yet to attain the durability being sought by the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) as a precursor to policy transmission. The agency expects the real GDP to expand 6-6.5 per cent year-on-year in the third quarter of FY2022 (+8.4 per cent in Q2 FY2022). It also sees the RBI maintaining the status quo in the upcoming monetary policy review to be held in February.
Many analysts over the past week have said the RBI has legroom to cut rates to the tune of 65 bps by June and some like Barclays and BofA have also spoken about the likelihood of an inter-meeting cut.
Analysts are divided on their retail price inflation forecast, with some saying the first quarter numbers will overshoot the RBI target by as much as 60 bps while others are softer in their estimate. Consumer price inflation retreated from its 15-month peak of 7.4 per cent in July to 6.8 per cent in August, much lower than the market expectations, despite vegetable prices remaining elevated at 26.1 per cent. Food inflation eased to 9.9 per cent from 11.5 per cent, led by some cooling of inflation in vegetables, cereals, pulses and milk.
Monetary policy committee had recommended no change in the key rate.
Reserve Bank of India Governor Urjit Patel on Saturday exhorted banks to reduce their lending rates to push credit demand in laggard segments, saying banks have benefited from influx of low-cost deposits and its previous repo rate cuts.
Both the indices closed at five-month highs, led by financial services, IT and metal stocks, amid persistent foreign fund inflows.
Equity indices made an emphatic comeback on Friday after falling for seven straight sessions after the RBI hiked interest rates by 50 basis points on expected lines and projected inflation coming under control from January next year. A strong recovery in the rupee added to the momentum, traders said. Overcoming a wobbly start, the 30-share BSE Sensex soared 1,016.96 points or 1.80 per cent to settle at 57,426.92. During the day, it rallied 1,312.67 points or 2.32 per cent to 57,722.63.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das on Wednesday said the country is at the doorstep of economic revival on the back of accommodative monetary and fiscal policies being pursued by the central bank and the government.
RBI wants periodic revision of the pensions for its retired employees.
RBI said inflation in the second half of the current fiscal is projected at 2.7-3.2%. It retained its GDP forecast for the current fiscal at 7.4%
Reliance Industries was the top gainer in the Sensex pack, rallying nearly 4 per cent, followed by Infosys, Tech Mahindra, HCL Tech, TCS and L&T.
Reserve Bank Governor Shaktikanta Das has pitched for policy support from all sides -- fiscal, monetary and sectoral -- to nurture recovery of the economy hit by the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. The dent on economic activity due to the second wave of the pandemic during April-May necessitated continuation of monetary measures to support the process of economic recovery to make it durable, Das had said while participating in the meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) earlier in the month. "Overall, the second wave of COVID-19 has altered the near-term outlook, and policy support from all sides - fiscal, monetary and sectoral - is required to nurture recovery and expedite return to normalcy," Das said, as per the minutes of the meeting released on Friday.
Chetan Ghate, Pami Dua and Ravindra Dholakia have been appointed for 4 years
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Wednesday announced to increase the policy repo rate by 50 basis points to 4.9 per cent, the second hike in five weeks aimed at quelling the inflation. The MPC vote was unanimous and has decided to keep stance withdrawal from accommodative, RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said in a press conference on Wednesday. The decision was taken during a three-day meeting of the RBI's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) to review the interest rates in the country. The MPC voted unanimously to increase the policy repo rate by 50 bps to 4.90 per cent," Das said.
Jaitley said if interest rates were lowered, the economy could grow faster than 7-7.5 per cent.
The government had amended the RBI Act through Finance Act 2016.
Rajan's exit will neither affect the RBI's de facto independence nor its working.
Lower inflation, FCNR(B) outflows likely to influence central bank decision
Raghuram Rajan called for purposeful and effective action to counter the atmosphere of cynicism, which has slowed down the decision making process.
'Even if there is a third wave or a fourth wave, it is hard to see the economy will suffer like that (during the first wave).'
The services sector growth in India rose to a 13-year high in September on sharp increase in new business amid strong demand conditions, and job numbers continued to increase as overall business mood improved, a monthly survey said on Thursday. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Services PMI Business Activity Index rose from 60.1 in August to 61 in September, signalling a sharp upturn in output. In Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
The first major aspect is that of the veto power to the governor.
Terming the RBI action on Wednesday as a "pleasant surprise", analysts today cautioned that possibility of a rate hike in the future cannot be ruled out. Urijit Patel committee's report on monetary policy would clear the air on RBI's future stand, they added.
RBI governor is seen succeeding International Monetary Fund (IMF) chief executive officer, Christine Lagarde, next year.
'For the RBI, for a central bank, reputational risk is the worst risk.' 'Credibility is the worst risk,'
India's manufacturing sector activities witnessed the strongest rate of growth in three months in July amid improved demand conditions and easing of some local COVID-19 restrictions, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted IHS Markit India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 48.1 in June to 55.3 in July, pointing to the strongest rate of growth in three months. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 denotes contraction.
Retail inflation declined to a one-year low of 5.72 per cent in December 2022, mainly due to softening prices of food items, according to official data released on Thursday. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) based retail inflation was at 5.88 per cent in November 2022 and 5.66 per cent in December 2021.
Consumer prices rose an annual 5.11 per cent (2012 base) in January.
Manufacturing activities in India touched a three-month high in March boosted by faster expansions in new orders and output amid demand resilience and easing of cost pressures, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) rose from 55.3 in February to 56.4 in March, signalling the strongest improvement in operating conditions in 2023 so far. The March PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 21st straight month.
If this turns into reality, India's gross domestic product (GDP) growth will be the lowest since 2012-13, which could severely hit job creation and income growth in the near term.
Gaurav Garg, head of research at CapitalVia Global Research Limited will answer your stock market queries.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) on Friday decided to leave the benchmark interest rate unchanged at 4 per cent but maintained an accommodative stance, implying rate cuts in the future if need arises to support the economy hit by the Covid-19 pandemic.
He argued that if inflation is low, stable and moving towards the 4 per cent target, why has the RBI not revised downward the bank rate fixed in June 2023?
The biggest risk to India's growth outlook is an escalation of geopolitical tensions, especially if these tensions spread to the Asian region, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) member Jayanth R Varma said on Wednesday. Varma, in an interview to PTI, said that inflation and inflationary expectations appear to be moderating and high inflation will certainly not become the 'norm' in the country. He is cautiously optimistic about the Indian economy as after the pandemic abated, consumption demand has begun to recover though the recovery is uneven across sectors and industries.
There is a narrow chance that the central bank may cut rates in the future, according to a poll of 15 economists and treasurers.
Amid uncertainties arising out of the second wave of COVID-19, the Reserve Bank on Thursday said that a durable revival of private consumption and investment would be critical for sustaining economic growth post-pandemic. Observing that 2020-21 has left a scar on the economy, RBI in its annual report said, "in the midst of the second wave as 2021-22 commences, pervasive despair is being lifted by cautious optimism built up by vaccination drives." The second wave of the pandemic has prompted revision of growth projections for the current fiscal and the consensus appears to be gravitating towards RBI's forecast of 10.5 per cent, the report added.
'The prime minister's comment on 'revdi culture' was welcome. But I am disappointed he did not follow up on that.' 'All political parties, including the BJP, have been guilty of this.' 'Now, Modi's guarantees, the Congress's 'nyay' path and both ruling and Opposition parties are vying with each other for freebies in my home state Andhra Pradesh.'
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Industry's demand for a reduction in the repo rate, currently 8 per cent, has gained momentum after wholesale and retail inflation eased in February.
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